The 2024 AMA Pro Motocross National Championship Series moves out of California to the thin air of Lakewood, Colorado, for the 2024 Thunder Valley National at Thunder Valley MX Park. Although it’s Eli Tomac’s home, he won’t be lining up, as he is recovering from thumb surgery. Last week saw the end of Jett Lawrence’s unbeaten streak in the 450 Nationals, and his condition for Saturday is an unknown. Despite that, we will dig into our 2024 Thunder Valley Motocross Fantasy picks so you can beat your friends in your RMFantasyMX.com leagues.
- The big question mark is Jett Lawrence. Although he is scheduled to race, we don’t know how badly Jett’s leg was injured in Hangtown’s first moto’s first-lap crash or how it will impact his psyche. So, while our fantasy motocross picks are fact-based speculation, the facts are thin. It’s time for the AMA to step up and require an injury report from every rider in a Supercross or National race. As people are gambling on the sport, with the support of the promoters, it’s time for the sport to make sure each race is on the up-and-up and everyone involved in making picks has the same information. How’s that for an opening rant?
- Chase Sexton’s second-moto last-to-first win at the Hangtown Classic was a ride for the ages. That, alone, could be enough to propel him to a second-consecutive Pro Motocross overall win. Add in that he was 1-1 at Hangtown and the only rider on the podium both motos and Sexton is the man to beat at Thunder Valley MX Park on Saturday.
- Hunter Lawrence is the only other rider with a pair of overall podiums in the 2024 AMA Pro Motocross National Championship Series. Hunter is P2 in the standings and has been on the podium in three of the four motos this year. However, Hunter doesn’t have a win yet, so it’s P2 in the 2024 Thunder Valley National for Jett’s big brother.
- Jett Lawrence had a P6 second-moto finish after his opening moto crash. That indicates that he will be in the top five, though we just don’t know. Jett did allow that he had to rely on upper body strength to compensate for his vague leg injury. With that in mind, I have Jett in P3 as an insurance pick. With the AMA allowing the concealment of injuries, there’s no way to know which Jett Lawrence will be racing on Saturday afternoon in Lakewood.
- Three riders are battling for the last two top-five positions—Jason Anderson, Justin Cooper, and Aaron Plessinger—and it’s close. Cooper (5-8-4-3) has been the most consistent rider of the three, so I have him down for P4 overall. Throw out the worst moto for Anderson and Plessinger, and the edge goes to Plessinger, as 3-X-5-2 beats 4-3-5. Given how closely they’re riding, it can be any of these three in any order, though Sexton and Hunter Lawrence have a lock on the higher positions.
- The Wild Card is P10, and the three leading riders for that slot are Christian Craig, Grant Harlan, and Freddie Norén. Norén has been 10-9-10 in the last three motos. It’s tough to deny him the Wild Card pick for P10. However, you have to consider Christian Craig and Grant Harlan, who swapped P11 and P12 moto finishes at Hangtown. Both Craig (15-17-12-11) and Harlan (17-18-11-12) are moving forward, so they will be giving Norén all he can handle for P10. This will be a Wild Card to watch. I’m going with Norén to hold on, with Craig as my backup choice.
- It could get wet at Thunder Valley MX Park on Saturday. Afternoon thunderstorms are predicted, with the likelihood peaking at 3 p.m. Of course, you never know if it will be a quick water-drop or the clouds will settle in, and the track becomes a quagmire. Keep an eye on Weather Underground for the latest from Lakewood. My position, as always, is that the cream rises to the top, regardless of conditions, so the weather won’t change my picks.
Photography by Align Media et al
2024 AMA Pro Motocross National Championship Series Standings (after 2 of 11 rounds)
- Chase Sexton, KTM, 90 points (1 overall win; 2 overall podiums; 2 overall top 5s)
- Hunter Lawrence, Honda, 82 (2P; 2 T5)
- Aaron Plessinger, KTM, 69 (1P; 1 T5)
- Justin Cooper, Yamaha, 69 (1 T5)
- Jason Anderson, Kawasaki, 67 (1 T5)
- Jett Lawrence, Honda, 66 points (1W; 1P; 1 T5)
- Dylan Ferrandis, Honda, 62 (1 T5)
- Justin Barcia, GasGas, 61 (1 T5)
- Malcolm Stewart, Husqvarna, 57
- Freddie Norén, Kawasaki, 46
- Phil Nicoletti, Yamaha, 38
- Christian Craig, Husqvarna, 33
- Marshal Weltin, Yamaha, 31
- Grant Harlan, Yamaha, 30
- Cullin Park, Honda, 24
- Derek Kelley, KTM, 24
- Dean Wilson, Honda, 17
- Justin Hill, KTM, 17
- Harri Kullas, KTM, 16
- Romain Pape, GasGas, 16
- Shane McElrath, Suzuki, 9
- Anthony Rodriguez, KTM, 7
- Jerry Robin, Yamaha, 7
- Kyle Chisholm, Suzuki, 6
- Max Miller, Suzuki, 3
- Lorenzo Locurcio, GasGas, 2
- Scotty Verhaeghe, GasGas, 2
- Jake Masterpool, GasGas, 1
